Analysts are clashing over the future of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, the focus keyphrase driving today’s debate. According to multiple market watchers, the next peak and subsequent downturn could hinge on whether the cycle still holds.
Bear-case: cycle peak then deep drawdown
On September 3, 2025, analyst Joao Wedson warned that Bitcoin could peak around $140,000 in October 2025. He added that, based on a long-term market pattern, prices might later crash to $50,000 in the 2026 bear market. Meanwhile, analyst CRYPTO₿IRB stated on September 4, 2025, that a 70–80% drop over 370–410 days is historically a “100%” probability after Bitcoin peaks, which he projects for late October to mid-November 2025.
Therefore, if the traditional rhythm persists, the 4-year cycle could imply severe downside risk. As a result, traders may watch timing windows, peak projections, and drawdown magnitudes closely.
Bull-case: cycle disruption from new dynamics
Challenging that view, prominent analyst Michaël van de Poppe declared on September 4, 2025, that “the four-year cycle is dead.” He cited evolving market dynamics, including increased institutional adoption, as reshaping Bitcoin’s behavior. However, the extent of any structural break remains uncertain.
For context on market cycles and volatility, see this overview of Bitcoin’s history. The split outlook highlights how the 4-year cycle, once a guiding narrative, now faces tests from changing liquidity and participation.
Key takeaways:
- Bear thesis: potential $140,000 peak in October 2025, then 2026 drawdown toward $50,000, according to Wedson.
- Historical lens: CRYPTO₿IRB sees a 70–80% decline over roughly a year as standard after peaks.
- Counterview: van de Poppe argues the cycle has broken, citing institutional factors.
Meanwhile, timing remains the wild card. If the cycle persists, risk could compress quickly after a peak. If it’s fading, Bitcoin’s path may deviate significantly. For deeper background on pegged assets that can influence liquidity flows, read our guide to how stablecoins work.
