Analysts warn that bitcoin dip risk could intensify as September approaches, a month that has historically weighed on prices. According to the source, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month since 2011, averaging a -4.6% decline. Therefore, traders are watching sentiment and liquidity closely.
ETF outflows and hot derivatives
In August, Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their second-worst month since launch, shedding over 15,000 BTC. Meanwhile, open interest in perpetual futures hit a yearly high. As a result, several desks describe the derivatives market as “overheated,” which can amplify sharp price moves tied to bitcoin dip risk.
Because leverage is elevated, even modest selling can cascade. However, if inflows return to ETFs, pressure could ease. For background on ETF mechanics and market drivers, see this ETF overview.
Key levels to watch
Should negative sentiment persist, analysts point to support near $101,000, with a potential further dip toward $94,000. Therefore, market structure around these zones may be pivotal. However, confirmation will likely depend on funding rates, basis, and liquidity across spot and derivatives.
Traders are also eyeing September’s track record. If historical seasonality repeats, risk management may tighten. Conversely, a positive catalyst could invalidate the setup and reduce bitcoin dip risk.
For readers new to digital dollar pegs and liquidity dynamics, our guide to how stablecoins work offers helpful context on market flows.
As always, this is not investment advice. Market conditions can change quickly.
