Bitcoin market structure is showing resilience, with metrics pointing to a healthy cooling phase rather than exhaustion. Analysts highlight that the declining Bitcoin Z-Score (LTH MVRV, 365d) has moved below zero, suggesting new demand is absorbing older supply while long-term holders remain in profit.
Cooling Z-Score, profits intact
The LTH MVRV Z-Score dropping below zero is a healthy development. It indicates that long-term holders continue to sit on gains, with an aggregate MVRV ratio of 3.3, even as overheated peaks fade. As a result, the market appears more balanced than in prior cycles.
This cooling dynamic also reduces the risk of blow-off tops. Consequently, older coins can be distributed into fresh demand without sharp dislocations.
Volatility returns, drawdowns capped
In 2025, Bitcoin market structure has navigated volatility not seen in over a decade. However, maximum drawdowns from all-time highs have been limited to 30% this cycle. This pattern suggests a maturing market, where long-term holders may realize gains earlier to smooth price action.
According to the source, this behavior can dampen extreme swings. Therefore, it may help sustain trend continuity without severe retracements.
ETF inflows and upside odds
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9. These flows are cited as contributing to a more balanced backdrop. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. assigns a 70% probability that Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs within the next two weeks.
For additional context on market drivers and on-chain dynamics, see Bitcoin background on Wikipedia. Investors often weigh liquidity, holder behavior, and ETF activity when assessing Bitcoin market structure.
Curious how dollar-pegged assets interact with Bitcoin liquidity? Read our explainer on how stablecoins work.
