Focus keyphrase: quantum threat to Bitcoin. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko says there is a 50/50 chance within five years that a quantum breakthrough could threaten Bitcoin’s security, citing the pace at which AI moves from research to real-world deployment. As a result, the quantum threat to Bitcoin is drawing renewed attention across the industry.
Why Bitcoin’s signatures are in the spotlight
Bitcoin uses the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). According to experts, quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm could exploit it. Therefore, a sufficiently powerful machine might compromise current protections.
David Carvalho of Naoris Protocol suggests such a compromise could happen in less than five years. Meanwhile, Yakovenko’s timeline points to 2030 as a critical window. The quantum threat to Bitcoin, therefore, is no longer a distant concern.
Hard fork risk and community challenges
A move to quantum-resistant signatures would likely require a hard fork. That presents both technical and social hurdles for the Bitcoin community. Moreover, estimates suggest 6–7 million BTC could be at risk under current schemes.
Key considerations include:
Choosing a quantum-resistant signature standard.
Coordinating a network-wide upgrade via a hard fork.
More EV News
Protecting dormant or lost coins during transition.
According to the source, urgency stems from AI’s rapid acceleration, which may foreshadow faster-than-expected quantum progress. However, precise timelines remain uncertain.
For background on cryptographic signatures and Shor’s algorithm, see Wikipedia’s overview. Meanwhile, understanding the role of collateral-like assets can offer context for risk management in crypto; read our guide on how stablecoins work.
As the debate grows, the quantum threat to Bitcoin will likely remain a top agenda item for developers and holders alike.
