Bitcoin seesaws as investors digest weak U.S. jobs data and rising odds of a September rate cut. The move comes amid shifting macro signals that could influence crypto risk appetite, and traders note that Bitcoin seesaws when policy expectations change.
Jobs miss stokes rate cut expectations
The U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, well below the 75,000 forecast, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. As a result, markets now heavily price a policy shift. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut on September 17.
Therefore, traders see easier financial conditions on the horizon. However, the path for crypto remains uncertain given lingering growth concerns.
Bitcoin’s mixed setup into September
Bitcoin seesaws with shifting rate expectations and reacted positively to the increased likelihood of rate cuts, according to market pricing. However, September has historically been its worst month, averaging a -3.77% return over the past 12 years. Consequently, some traders remain cautious despite the policy tailwind.
Key factors to watch include labor data revisions, Fed communication before the meeting, and liquidity conditions across risk assets. Meanwhile, macro-sensitive traders may prefer confirmation from upcoming prints.
What this means for crypto markets
Lower rates can lift liquidity and risk appetite; however, weaker growth can offset that effect. For context on monetary policy transmission, see how the Fed funds rate influences markets.
For readers exploring stable-value assets amid volatility, our guide to how stablecoins work provides a concise primer.
- August jobs: 22,000 added; unemployment at 4.3%.
- CME FedWatch: 99.3% odds of a 25 bps cut on Sept. 17.
- Bitcoin’s September average: -3.77% over 12 years.
In short, Bitcoin seesaws as rate cut odds rise while growth worries linger.